Restoration Gamble

the fourth scenario to achieve carbon neutrality

Lifestyles of the early 21st century are safeguarded. But the abundance of goods consumes a great deal of energy and materials with a potentially high environmental impact.

Society places its trust in its ability to manage and even repair social and ecological systems with more material and financial resources to maintain a liveable world. This exclusive reliance on technology is a gamble, as some of them are not mature.

Society
in 2050

Energy efficiency and technical innovation

  • Development of large cities and land degradation in connection with the search for “ever more” comfort and safety
  • Improved efficiency of equipment and emergence of new highly efficient technologies
  • Digital technology is embedded in vehicle drivetrains and management of mobility.
+28%
miles driven due to increased
long distance travel.

Technological levers to support productive and specialised bioeconomic sectors

  • Agriculture and agri-food industries are highly specialised and competitive
  • The use of lignocellulosic biomass and wood waste for energy recovery is promoted
  • Profound changes in the forestry landscape (felling of deciduous trees and replanting with conifers).
More than
75%
of biomass
used for energy
(methanisation, biofuels).

Decarbonisation of industry focused on geological CO2 capture and storage

  • Major role of imports in a globalised world favouring trade in materials
  • Exploitation of natural resources and recycling pushed to the limit due to advanced technologies.
-19%
less energy consumption
by industry.
NB : the data shown in this infographic is defined in relation to the year 2015.

Discover the 3 other scenarios

Frugal
Generation

Frugal Generation

Significant changes in the way we travel, heat ourselves, eat, buy and use equipment will occur to achieve carbon neutrality without involving carbon capture and sequestration technologies, which are unproven and uncertain on a large scale.

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S1

Regional
Cooperation

Regional Cooperation

Society is transformed within the framework of shared governance and regional cooperation. Non-governmental organisations, public institutions, the private sector and civil society find pragmatic ways to cooperate to maintain the social fabric.

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S2

Green
Technologies

Green Technologies

Technological development provides more of the answers to environmental challenges than changes towards more moderate consumption patterns or energy sufficiency.

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S3

Download the scenario
infographic